The Arctic – A Melting Treasure
It's been untouched for millions of years, lying deep below the Arctic ice. The future of our warming planet depends on what we decide to do with it. It could be extremely valuable and extremely dangerous. Below the ice lies a fortune in unexploited oil and natural gas resources, and everyone wants a piece of the melting Arctic.
China is geographically near Arctic state. The United States is an Arctic nation. These restrictions cannot stop us from this process from exploring the Arctic. And it's not just about oil and gas. The melting ice also opens up shipping routes, fishing grounds, and land.
Will the Arctic powers grab those fossil fuels and worsen the heating of our planet? Or will they cooperate for a sustainable future? It's not as simple as you might think. To survive here, you do need to cooperate. The largest Arctic mission ever called Mosaic proved that humans can pull together.
Oh man, I am so impressed. A challenge is a challenge, but we together can overcome it.
Scientists from 20 countries, including Russia, worked peacefully together to investigate climate change in the Arctic. But when it comes to economic interests, that spirit of cooperation evaporates. The region powers are trying to claim as much land as possible.
So, who are these rivals and who does the Arctic really belong to?
More than half of the Arctic coastline is Russian territory. 2 million people live there. About half the population of the entire Arctic region. Then there is the US with Alaska, Greenland, which is part of Denmark, Canada, Iceland, and Norway. International law gives these countries the right to control natural resources in exclusive economic zones up to 200 nautical miles from their coastlines.
The Arctic region beyond those boundaries, including the North Pole, is agreed to be a common heritage of all mankind. That means it should be held in trust for future generations, protected from exploitation by nations or corporations. But countries can apply for larger exclusive economic zones if they can prove that the shallow sea of their coastline goes out further than 200 km. Norway, Russia, Canada, and Denmark have already done that, presumably for when the melting ice opens up all those economic opportunities.
The Arctic Cold War
Having a strong presence in the Arctic is ever more important. The Arctic is caught up in this uh larger geopolitical tension between NATO and Russia. And it's it's the Arctic's strategic importance for Russia. that also um leads to the increased military activity in the north.
Andreas Ostagen analyzes the political dynamics of the Arctic region with an emphasis on security and geopolitics.
We've seen um a downward spiral if you will or tit for tat where Russia has been been exercising simulating attacks on Norwegian targets, simulating attacks on NATO targets. Um and then NATO responds with with these large scale exercises that combines military forces from from many countries.
Big shows of military strength often reveal much about potential future conflicts. And surprise, surprise, in the Arctic, it's shaping up to be oil and gas money. Just how much money can be seen in Russia's largest protected wilderness, the Great Arctic Nature Reserve, and the massive oil project there, Vostok Oil. Russia hopes to extract 6 billion tons of crude and 2 trillion cubic meters of gas here. It's planned new airports, marine terminals, and 800 km of pipelines. That's assuming the Arctic has melted enough to ship out the oil via the Northern Sea route.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has, however, put a dent in these plans. The Vostok project has lost investors and access to Western oil and gas tech and services. It might well be delayed or scaled back. But others are stepping in. One major investor is China.
China is of course interested in Arctic science because without this knowledge it's impossible to operate in the Arctic.
This is Sana Copra. She researches China's Arctic policy.
China is very hungry for resources because its economic growth is mainly based on um heavy industry and it needs a lot of energy, a lot of other minerals, resources and the Arctic is a new area where where it can exploit these resources. But of course, it's it's very dependent on cooperation with Arctic states, especially Russia.
But Russia's war against Ukraine has made some in China wary.
Some Chinese investors have uh pushed their activities in in Russia because they are fear of sanctions. I mean, of course, China—there are no sanctions against China for for now—but if they cooperate very closely with Russia, there is a risk that uh the EU or uh the US will post sanctions against China as well.
The Arctic is also part of China's ever-expanding Belt and Road Initiative via what's been dubbed the Polar Silk Road. The Belt and Road Strategy is building a vast network of railways, highways, and ports to allow China to transport goods and resources around the world.
Recently, some Arctic players have slowed or stopped oil and gas development. Canada prohibits offshore oil drilling in marine protected areas and Greenland banned oil exploration in 2021. The US has suspended oil and gas leases in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, but pressure is growing to drill here to secure energy supplies.
The Arctic's presumed huge gas and oil resources sound so tempting. They are often cited as fact. Most numbers refer to one study of the United States Geological Survey which was conducted in 2009.
It is important to understand that the percentages and estimates that are provided in these reports are really highly uncertain.
This is Nina During. She and her team researched how a scientific estimate became economic facts.
The numbers and percentages started to appear in a wide range of policy documents and Arctic strategies of different countries and in newspaper articles. And through all of these translation processes, it really started to seem as if it was a fact that there are large quantities of oil and gas just kind of waiting to be found in the Arctic when actually that really is much more unclear.
People, Ecosystems, and Unseen Risks
And what about the people living in the Arctic? Their land is not only at the center of geopolitical tensions. It's also melting under their feet.
It's been a real transition for us.
Karen Plnikov monitors how fishing and climate change are affecting the food chain. And now the climatic changes, the warm water blob, the harmful algal blooms, um they're all conspiring to impact just the basic production of the Bering Sea.
For the 500,000 indigenous people of the Arctic, it's a real threat. Their income, culture, and traditions depend on an ecologically intact Arctic habitat. Toxic substances from oil and gas exploitation can collapse such fragile ecosystems. When absorbed by plankton and plants, they can poison the food chain.
For example, this little guy is the fattest of the Arctic copepods, and fat is vital to survival in the cold. If those copepods fail to breed, less fat is transported up through the food chain to fish and birds, to seals, whales, polar bears, and humans. Just tiny amounts of oil in the sea can crash copepod egg hatching rates. Without copepods, the food chain is seriously disrupted.
Between 2013 and 2019, there was a 25% increase in marine traffic in the Arctic. Yet more wastewater discharge, oil pollution, and underwater noise. This disrupts wildlife's ability to communicate, navigate, and hunt. While chemical pollution hurts the health and reproductive abilities of this fragile ecosystem, most ships use heavy fuel oil banned in the Antarctic, but somehow allowed in the Arctic. When this ridiculously dirty fuel spills in polar waters, it's especially damaging. When cold, oil is more viscous and doesn't break up into small droplets which oil-degrading bacteria could consume.
The risk of oil spills and accidents can be a really serious challenge for clean-up here.
Source: DW Planet A. (2022, November 25). The race for the Arctic is ramping up. Here’s why. [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvRzWzQW2go